Never one to avoid putting myself out there, I decided to break from normal journalistic fear and actually make myself accountable for my projections for next Tuesday. I have gone through all of the polls with a fine tooth comb and this is how I think things are going to play out next week. I know that this is a real divergence from what is being reported in most of the national media, but I honestly cannot believe how twisted their analytics have become to generate a false “close race.” I will note that I literally flipped a coin between Wisconsin and Michigan – I think that those states will split, I just have no faith in my ability to guess which way.
Those of you that have read “Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics (Pt 2) – Polling” will remember that I have little faith in current polling results because they are grossly overstating projected Democratic turnout because they are using 2008 turnout data. During the last election there was palpable electricity about the possibility of the first black President as well as the possibility that Obama could bring real “hope and change.” There is no longer any hope for change under Obama and the electricity is completely lacking as small and lackluster crowds “greet” an angry and bitter Obama in the final days of the election. Needless to say, I don’t think that the Democratic turnout will be anything close to what is being projected in the polls.
In addition, it has been fun (for political geeks like me) to watch the polling services manipulate the polls as Romney pulls away. In Ohio after the first debate the independent split moved to 30 points plus for Romney. That was never reflected in most of the polls as pollsters took the already bloated Democratic turnout and actually bumped that up 2% taking 2% away from the projected independent voter turnout. Of course no explanation was ever given for this change.
Finally, much as it pains me to say it this bluntly, America can have a herd mentality as people like to support a winner, especially when they don’t feel strongly about the loser. As it becomes more and more difficult to project a close race even using twisted data, last-minute voters will swing to Romney to be part of a winner.
Of course, I could be completely wrong.