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Last Thursday, while Americans gave thanks and stuffed themselves with turkey, Egypt’s new president, Mohammed Morsi declared that the office of president was free from any judicial oversight. Essentially, Morsi said that he was no longer beholden to any other branch of government for any actions he chooses to take. Almost immediately, protests erupted in Tahrir Square, Cairo’s now famous protest assembly point.
Protests in Tahrir Square. Photo courtesy of the Washington Post.
On Monday, after four days of protest, Morsi met with senior justices of Egypt’s highest court and listened to their arguments for the need to scale back or revoke his declaration regarding oversight of the office. He refused to change his stance and in fact, moved ahead with plans for a draft constitution. Morsi has claimed that his actions were designed to give him room to write a new constitution and that once that was taken care of, he would return power to the judiciary and to the people. Given the continuation of the protests, Egyptians do not seem to be buying what Morsi is selling.
One problem with Morsi’s statement is that the Shura Council (the People’s Assembly, the only fully representative legislative body in the Egyptian government, was dissolved in June of this year), dominated by Morsi’s fellow Muslim Brotherhood party members, worked double-time to write and pass a draft constitution. The speed of that action set off even more protests throughout Egypt and especially in Cairo. The same chants of “Leave, leave” heard during the anti-Mubarak protests were heard again. One small positive sign was the cancellation by the Muslim Brotherhood of counter protests in Tahrir Square. A spokesman for Morsi stated that the repeal of judicial oversight was only temporary and would be restored once the new constitution was passed in a referendum. Opposition leaders didn’t buy that argument either .
The NY Times reported that Morsi appeared to walk back some of his decree after meeting with the justices and after five days of protests. However, it remains to be seen if the semi-retraction is for real, or if that was a political move designed to calm down opposition.
During the Arab Spring movement last year, Egypt was widely perceived to be a leader in removing old, authoritarian leaders and ushering in a new era of liberalization in the Arab world and the Obama administration supported those moves. However, in recent weeks, any movement towards liberalization has been turned back and effectively stopped. Egyptian blogger The Big Pharaoh who, under the Mubarak regime, spent time imprisoned for his political writing (and on Twitter @TheBigPharaoh) notes that just 24 hours after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton praised Morsi for helping to broker a cease fire between Hamas (the Palestinian arm of the Muslim Brotherhood) and Israel, Morsi issued his declaration regarding the removal of judicial oversight. The Big Pharaoh asks if Morsi has figured out what Mubarak and others did….give the U.S. what it wants and it will look the other way while you trample any move towards democratization in Egypt. The Obama Administration seems content to follow this play book.
Egypt is a key player in the Middle East; it is the only Arab state with a peace treaty with Israel. Egypt is also still a U.S. ally and partner in the region; the U.S. relies heavily on Egypt to help with regional issues. However, if Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood continue their moves towards reversing liberalization trends and increasing individual restrictions through the imposition of Sharia law, the U.S. will have to take decisive diplomatic action. The Obama Administration was very supportive of the movement to push Mubarak out of power. How will the President and his administration react when that movement become antithetical to U.S. interests and values?
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HotAir
From what I understand, the judiciary in Egypt is still dominated by judges appointed by Mubarak and opposed to Morsi’s government. They were going to disband the group writing the new constitution to sabotage the process. If that is correct, then Morsi did what had to be done.
Whatever the truth may be, it is good to see the protests, as they send a strong signal to Morsi that another repressive government will not be accepted by the people.
MB should fully enjoy its vocitry but coming days are not going to be easy. Military is still the most powerful force in the country and it will remains so for years to come. To deal with such strong military, Morsi/MB now have two choices based on the experience of two other Muslim countries which found themselves in somewhat similar circumstances. Pakistan People Party (led by Benazir Bhutto) and AKP (led by Erdogan) won popular elections in 1988 and 2002 respectively but faced a deeply entrenched powerful military, unwilling to allow the new government to work independently. Even before they became Prime Ministers, Bhutto and Erdogan had to give assurances that they will play by the rules i.e. accept military’s ascendency and pre-eminance in the affairs of state. Reports of recent talks between the SCAF and MB show that such negotiations might also be happening in Egypt and orders of shoot-to-kill (which you referred in your previous post) might have been given to drop a hint to the MB negotiators that the military is ready for bloodshed, if assurances are not given. Fortunately, it appears MB has satisfied the military as Pakistani and Turkish militaries were also satisfied by the PMs Bhutto and Erdogan respectively. What happened next in Pakistan and Turkey is a lesson for MB and Morsi. In Pakistan, Bhutto did some good things to open Pakistani society and better the lot of women but her government was mostly associated with incompetence and corruption. This emboldened the military, raised its stature in masses and Bhutto’s government was thrown out of office in twenty months. For the next eight years, military assisted in removal of two more prime ministers, before a martial law was imposed in 1999 to end the decade-old democratic experiment. In contrast, Erdogan’s government performed remarkably well. It managed to improve most of the socio-economic indicators of the country and won praise from Turkish and international pundits for its dedication to the welfare of masses. This performance resulted in two more comprehensive electoral wins in the next nine years. With such popular support behind him, Erdogan gradually challenged the military prerogatives and now Turkey works more like an advanced democracy, with Turkish military almost completely under civilian control.Morsi and MB are well-advised to follow Erdogan’s footsteps and avoid Bhutto’s mistakes. Interestingly, General Tantawi, Chairman of SCAF, served as military attache in Egyptian embassy, Islamabad in the 1980s.